A couple weeks ago, Wade posted an article about the EUR/USD, and asked you to speculate whether the chart showed a triple top, or an ascending triangle. (http://www.pfxglobal.com/index.php?o...091&Itemid=188)
The results were mixed, as you might imagine, but the bias was toward a triple top, 11-7 by count in the post at this forum. The best prediction was SeekingLight, who said: "I suspect a fourth touch and retrace then breakthrough/new high, exhaustion, gasp, descent."
Like Wade and SL said, there was the touch and retrace, and now we are left to consider more closely a breakthrough and a new high (a descent after the high is another story for now :)
Fast-forward to today, and we see a Pair at a Crossroads. Right now, it looks a lot more like an ascending triangle. A fibonacci retracement study tells us we're in for a bounce off resistance for the short term, but the bias is, in my opinion, still very much long.
Let's talk about the charts below. I'm planning for a short term bounce off resistance at 1.490 at the 0% fib line, followed by a quick bounce off support to complete that ascending triangle, followed by a break out of the pattern to the long, up to 1.500.
Don't be surprised though to see the breakout come without one more bounce off of resistance. That's why, as a new trader, I keep my positions long-term and avoid trying to trade those short moves. I may miss some of the quick profits, but I also avoid the hard losses.
Whether you agree or not, the next few days are going to be key for the EUR/USD, as that channel is getting ever tighter.
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