Thursday, March 27, 2008

Will Americans get stuck with the $30 billion credit bailout tab?


by Ryan Teeples

Have you ever felt a charitable desire to help a poor soul who is losing his Maserati? Have you ever welled up inside with compassion for an industry which just had an unfortunate run of bad luck and made too many bad business decisions?

No? Well you have no soul then. And if a Fed Historian is right, you will be forced to "donate" your hard earned dollars to help these needy banks.

"Officials are playing with fire,'' said Allan Meltzer, a Fed historian and economics professor at Carnegie Mellon University in Pittsburgh. "With good luck, none of these liabilities will come due. We can't expect that good luck, and we haven't had it,'' he said in an article on Bloomberg this morning. (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...2GQ&refer=home )

He, and many other economists are not optimistic that the government will be able to recover its $30 billion "investment" in the banking industry bailout, and that money will basically come out of the taxpayer pool.

Granted, the economy will benefit, but I'm of the school that the market needs to correct sometimes, and a little recession now and then is a good thing.

I'm interested to know what the rest of you think about this. It's certainly more a social and political issue the way I've presented it. But it leaves underlying questions crucial for forex traders to understand, as they may dramtically impact the US ecomony.

Will this bailout strategy work?

Will a failure of the plan cause consumer and investor sentiment to spiral further?

Will Batman and Robin be able to escape the grasp of the Joker and his men?

Looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

By the way, as equities remain uncertain, we are watching the USD/JPY S&R levels very closely. Check out what we have: http://www.pfxglobal.com/usd-jpy/usd...ard.html#step3.

We do this kind of analysis with video explanation for all major pairs at www.pfxglobal.com





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Tuesday, March 25, 2008

Has Dollar Turned The Corner?


After relentless selling for the past month which culminated in a spike top of 1.5900 at the start of trade this week, the EURUSD dollar finally turned the corner dropping below 1.5500 by Good Friday. As we wrote in our daily, “The market appears at a standstill as EURUSD consolidates its gain in the 1.5300-1.5500 area and traders wait for the next theme to develop. The collapse of Bear Stearns has left the market wary, but with no additional news of serious trouble in the US financial system, dollar shorts have run out of fresh reasons to sell the greenback. Meanwhile evidence of a potential slowdown in EZ economy is starting to mount, raising concerns that ECB may have to shift its hawkish posture relatively soon”.

Has Dollar Turned The Corner?

After relentless selling for the past month which culminated in a spike top of 1.5900 at the start of trade this week, the EURUSD dollar finally turned the corner dropping below 1.5500 by Good Friday. As we wrote in our daily, “The market appears at a standstill as EURUSD consolidates its gain in the 1.5300-1.5500 area and traders wait for the next theme to develop. The collapse of Bear Stearns has left the market wary, but with no additional news of serious trouble in the US financial system, dollar shorts have run out of fresh reasons to sell the greenback. Meanwhile evidence of a potential slowdown in EZ economy is starting to mount, raising concerns that ECB may have to shift its hawkish posture relatively soon”.

Next week the calendar hardly looks friendly to the dollar as nearly every event from Existing Home Sales to U of M Confidence survey are expected to print lower that the prior month. However, after so much bad news, the greenback may benefit from diminishing expectations staging a rally simply if the data does not show any further deterioration. In any case the market appears to be trading less on economic news and more on risk version concerns. If currency traders see some stabilization in US financial sector some flows may return to the buck, on pure short covering dynamics alone. Therefore, while the rally in the dollar may continue, for the time being it is still nothing more than a correction in ongoing bear market. -BS

Visit our recently updated EUR/USD Currency Room for more resources dedicated to the US Dollar.





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Daily Report: EUR/USD Rebounds, Correction Completed?


Daily Report: EUR/USD Rebounds, Correction Completed?

Markets focus turns back to strength in Euro and weakness in dollar as traders are finally back from vacations. Overall direction is not clear at this moment as different contradicting forces are driving the forex markets. On the one hand, commodity markets remains generally weak, with oil dropping close to $100/bl level and gold hovering near to recent low. On the other hand, carry trade unwinding cools on strong rebound in Asian stock markets. Nevertheless, the more noticeable movements are the broad based weakness in dollar and broad based strength in euro which is also reflected with EUR/USD topping the top movers chart of today so far.

Technically speaking, dollar's rebound is still retreated as a correction only, as least against Euro, yen and Swissy. Meanwhile, Euro's retreat against dollar as well as against Sterling is also treated as correction. These pairs remain the better bet on next round of dollar weakness.

Looking ahead, with an empty economic calendar in European session, focus is on Canadian retail sales, US consumer confidence in the US session. Retail sales in Canada is expected to rise 0.9% mom in Jan, up from 0.6% in Dec. Ex-auto sales is expected to rebound by rising 0.5% mom, up from -0.4% fall. Conference Board Consumer Confidence in US is expected to drop from 75 to 74 in Mar.





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Thursday, March 20, 2008

Morgan Stanley 1Q Profit Tops Estimates


Better-Than-Expected Morgan Stanley Results Help Reassure Investors Amid Credit Crisis

NEW YORK (AP) -- Morgan Stanley posted better-than-expected quarterly earnings on Wednesday, joining those from two of its rivals and indicating that Wall Street may be getting a better grip on the credit crisis.

The nation's second-largest investment bank was able to parlay aggressive stock and bond trading into offsetting more losses linked to subprime mortgages. Morgan Stanley -- like Lehman Brothers and Goldman Sachs on Tuesday -- was also able to top Wall Street's reduced expectations by a wide margin.

Morgan Stanley's results came during a tumultuous week. Just a few days earlier, rival Bear Stearns Cos. sold itself at a fire-sale $2 per share price to JPMorgan Chase & Co. in order to avoid declaring bankruptcy. That sent a shockwave through Wall Street as investors wondered if other investment banks might be in the same predicament.

But the strong results from Morgan Stanley, Goldman and Lehman helped assuage fears of a wider meltdown in the financial system -- at least for now.

"Fact is, like it or not, this is an inherently risky business where the returns will shift to those willing to take the most leverage," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer of Harris Private Bank. "Expectations had us in a tailspin."

The earnings results not only helped shares of the investment banks recover from the lows they hit Monday in the aftermath of Bear's sale, but also backed claims by the companies' chief executives that they could take advantage of the market's dislocation.

John Mack, Morgan Stanley's CEO, said the investment house known for its trading prowess "effectively capitalized on market opportunities and aggressively managed our positions." The company had about $2.3 billion worth of write-downs linked to the credit and housing market crisis, but one of its best trading performances in history.

Morgan Stanley wrote down about $9.4 billion during last year's second half. Global banks and brokerages have so far claimed about $200 billion worth of write-downs since last year.

"While many of our businesses are facing challenging market conditions that we expect to continue in the months ahead, we are satisfied with how Morgan Stanley navigated the ongoing market turbulence," Mack said in a statement.

The company said it earned $1.53 billion after preferred dividends, or $1.45 per share, down 42 percent from $2.66 billion, or $2.17 per share, a year earlier. Revenue fell 17 percent to $8.3 billion from $10 billion a year earlier.

But the lower results easily topped analysts' expectations for a profit of $1.03 per share on $7.19 billion of revenue, according to Thomson Financial.

Its shares closed up 59 cents at $43.45, following a 17 percent gain in Tuesday's market rally.

Morgan Stanley's institutional securities business -- which includes investment banking and trading -- posted $6.2 billion of revenue. The results marked the division's third-best quarter ever.

Meanwhile, volatility in the bond market pushed fixed-income sales and trading revenue to their second-best showing with $2.9 billion of revenue.

Though offset by mortgage write-downs, Morgan Stanley relied on robust commodities and currency markets to drive results.

"We believe (Goldman and Morgan Stanley) have shown their ability to trade challenging markets this quarter," said Roger Freeman, an analyst with Lehman Brothers. "There is hope that the Federal Reserve's aggressiveness will begin to unclog the fixed-income markets. ... This could push the group still higher over the next few sessions."

Goldman Sachs, Lehman and Morgan Stanley said they began to test a new program this week that allows them to borrow directly from the central bank to help improve the financial market's liquidity. On Sunday the Fed gave investment banks permission to borrow from its discount window, which had previously been restricted to commercial banks.

The Fed also cut the rate at which financial institutions borrow at its "discount window" to 2.5 percent from 3.5 percent in two separate actions this week.

Though all seemed to be positive steps for Wall Street, that doesn't mean the concerns about the rest of the year have been alleviated.

The fiscal first-quarter for the three banks ended Feb. 29, before most of the market turbulence that rocked Bear Stearns last week. Investors are also still waiting for Merrill Lynch & Co. to finish its first quarter at the end of the month.

And then there's the biggest worry on investors' minds.

"We remain concerned with the deteriorating economy and its impact on the results at these firms, despite (the Fed's) aid with near-term funding," said Standard & Poor's equity analyst Matthew Albrecht.





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Visa Stock Soars in Market Debut


Shares in Visa Inc. Soar 28 Percent in Stock Market Debut, the Biggest IPO in US History

SAN FRANCISCO (AP) -- Catapulted by the biggest IPO in U.S. history, Visa Inc. shares soared 28 percent in their stock market debut Wednesday as investors bet an accelerating shift to electronic payments will enrich the world's largest processor of credit and debit cards.

After being priced above expectations at $44 per share in an initial public offering that raised nearly $18 billion, Visa shares finished at $56.50 on the New York Stock Exchange Wednesday. The run-up gives the San Francisco-based company a market value of about $45 billion.

"This is an exciting and historic day for Visa," said Chairman Joseph Saunders, who received a $10.2 million bonus last year for laying the IPO groundwork.

Investors believe Visa is in a lucrative position as more people rely on its electronic network to make payments instead of using cash and checks. The company is expected to milk the phenomenon to become an even bigger cash cow than it already is.

Visa generated $5.2 billion in annual revenue last year as it handled more than more than 44 billion transactions totaling more than $3.2 trillion. The volume puts Visa far ahead of its main rival MasterCard Inc., whose own shares have more than quintupled from their May 2006 IPO price of $39.

Making Visa even more alluring to investors, the company is well-insulated from the credit problems that have scarred many of the lenders that issue the cards bearing its brand.

Unlike those lenders, Visa doesn't carry any consumer debt on its books. It depends on transaction fees, which have been steadily rising for years, including the past two U.S. recessions in 1991 and 2001.

Since the last recession, Visa has enticed consumers to use its credit and debit cards more frequently to pay for staples like groceries, gas and even utility bills. Visa estimates about 42 percent of its transactions fall into this "nondiscretionary" category, up from 27 percent in 2000.

"Visa enjoys one of the widest economic moats that a company can desire," Morningstar analyst Michael Kon wrote in a Wednesday research note.

Reflecting management's confidence, Visa anticipates annual earnings growth of at least 20 percent for at least the next two years. The company got off to a fast start in its fiscal first quarter ending in December with a $424 million profit, up 70 percent from the previous year.

Visa overcame turbulent market conditions to shatter the previous U.S. record IPO of $10.6 billion raised by AT&T Wireless eight years ago.

"To sell 400 million shares at a time like this is Herculean," said David Menlow, president of IPOfinancial.com

Investment bankers could still exercise an option to buy another 40.6 million Visa shares during the next 30 days. If that happens, Visa's IPO will end up raising $19.7 billion before expenses.

Visa has earmarked nearly $12 billion of the IPO proceeds to buy back shares from the banks that helped build up its network over the past 50 years. The biggest chunk, about $1.36 billion, will be paid to its largest customer and shareholder, JPMorgan Chase & Co., according to an updated breakdown filed late Wednesday.

Other major banks cashing in on Visa's IPO include: Bank of America Corp., National City Corp., Citigroup Inc., U.S. Bancorp and Wells Fargo & Co.

The windfall comes a propitious time, given the banking industry's wobbly condition as billions of losses pile up from the housing market's worst downturn since the 1930s.

Another $3 billion from the IPO is being deposited into an escrow account to cover potential liabilities in lawsuits alleging Visa conspired to stifle competition and fix prices.

Those legal problems represent one of the biggest risks to owning Visa stock, although the company's management maintains the escrow account and contingency measures should adequately protect investors. Visa paid more than $2 billion late last year to resolve a suit with American Express Co., but a similar case brought by Discover Financial Services LLC is scheduled for a Sept. 9 trial in New York.

Visa's dependence on only a handful of banks that issue most of its cards poses another possible downside, said Aite Group analyst Gwenn Bezard. The company's five largest customers accounted for $1.2 billion, or 23 percent, of its revenue last year.

Big card issuers like JPMorgan already get special discounts and the pricing pressure on Visa could intensify if more industry mergers further decrease the number of banks using its processing network, Bezard said. That might crimp Visa's profits.

For now, Visa is planning to trim about $300 million in expenses during the next two years to boost its operating profit margin from 37 percent.

Menlow and other analysts don't view Visa's blockbuster IPO as a sign that jittery investors have suddenly become more interested in taking chances on companies going public for the first time.

"This is more like an oasis in the desert," Menlow said.

The arid conditions have produced just 22 IPOs far this year, down from 47 at the same juncture in 2007.





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New High-Yield Accounts Come With Plenty of Restrictions


With the Federal Reserve cutting rates six times since September, the days of tidily earning 5% on your cash appear to be a thing of the past. Since last June, yields on online savings accounts at HSBC and Emigrant Direct have dropped from just over 5% (among the highest yields at the time) to 3.55% and 3.3%, respectively. The returns on high-yield savings and money-market accounts are even more meager — averaging just 2.64%, according to Bankrate.com.

But there's a small segment of the banking world that is bucking this low-yield trend. Some little-known community banks and credit unions are offering accounts that carry yields as high as 6.26%. Better yet, these so-called reward checking accounts (they're also referred to as maximum earnings accounts) have no monthly fees, and deposits are insured by the FDIC or its credit union counterpart, the NCUA. In order to earn these higher annual returns, however, account holders must meet certain criteria each month, such as paying bills and banking online, using direct deposit and making a set number of debit card transactions.

These banks aren't just being generous — reward checking and maximum earning accounts are one way that the smaller banks are trying to weather the current economic downturn, explains Aaron McPherson, a practice director at Financial Insights, a financial services market researcher. Not only does the bank attract new deposits at a time when many consumers are draining their accounts to settle debts, but it also profits from the monthly requirements it imposes on these accounts. Each debit transaction generates merchant interchange fees, for example, while a paperless account reduces costs.

"[The banks] may not in fact be making much money, but they feel they have to offer these accounts to hang onto consumers," says McPherson. "This is a loss leader to sell you on other products and a long-term relationship with the bank."

Although the high rates are tempting, questions remain about the value of such accounts for consumers."A checking account is like a spouse: You need real compatibility," says Greg McBride, senior financial analyst with Bankrate.com. Some consumers will find it easier to work within the confines of such accounts than others. Adds Rob Shevlin, a senior analyst with market researcher Aite Group: "There are just so many rules, requirements and restrictions."

Here's what you need to consider before abandoning your current account for a reward checking or maximum earning account:

Large yields won't last forever
"Rates are not going to stay at 6%," warns Jim Bruene, publisher of Online Banking Report. Most banks began marketing these accounts before the Fed took an ax to the federal funds rate. As reward checking accounts become more popular, odds are good that these smaller banks will have to lower their yields to retain a profit. At the same time, big bank chains are already muscling in on the market. Washington Mutual, for example, is testing a "Savings for Success" account in Georgia, Illinois and Texas that earns 6.5% when consumers make monthly deposits from a linked WaMu checking account.

You'll need to keep score
Fail to meet just one of the many conditions of your account, and you'll earn a significantly lower rate on your balance for that month. At Arkansas-based Heartland Community Bank, the rate of 6.01% drops to 0.30% if you don't make at least 10 debit transactions and one automatic deposit or online bill payment, among other conditions. "That may not be a fun game for you to play," says Bruene. "Is that something you want to be thinking about each month, making sure you make a dozen debit transactions to get a few extra bucks in interest?"

Only locals need apply
Because most banks limit access to reward checking options to in-state residents, where you live will determine just how good of a rate you can get. For a list of the highest-yield accounts, visit Money-rates.com.

Fees may eclipse extra interest
A major disadvantage to banking with an independent bank is that they have fewer ATMs. "If you're an ATM junkie and you don't plan your cash needs, you could find yourself losing that extra interest — and then some — in ATM fees," says Linda Sherry, a spokeswoman for Consumer Action. Look for rewards checking that offers reimbursement of these fees. Colorado-based New Frontier Bank, for example, refunds all ATM fees customers pay to other banks.
Copyrighted, SmartMoney.com. All Rights Reserved.





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A Bear Market for 401(k) Plans


There are a lot of things wrong with JPMorgan Chase's (NYSE: JPM - News) $2-per-share bid for Bear Stearns (NYSE: BSC - News), including increased government intervention in the marketplace, an increase in the moral hazard by the Fed assuming the riskiest assets, and the potential liability taxpayers face from allowing JPMorgan to virtually steal the choicest cuts of Bear's hide.

Yet while pundits will be questioning the rationale behind the maneuver for years to come, investors need to take away one important lesson from this debacle: Don't invest too much of your retirement nest egg into your company's stock.

We've heard that British billionaire Joseph Lewis has lost about $1 billion on Bear's implosion, and Chairman James Cayne, who owns around 5% of his company's shares, has lost about $400 million. But it's tough to feel too sorry for them. It's easy to imagine they'll land on their feet just fine after the smoke clears.

Pity instead the rank-and-file employees of Bear Stearns, who collectively own about a third of the company's stock. They've just witnessed the loss of their life savings. Dreams of homeownership, college for their kids, and early retirement have all flown out the window.

Rooting for the home team

Unfortunately, it's not a new phenomenon. After Enron collapsed in late 2000, a study looked at concentrations of employer stock within retirement plans. According to the study, nearly a full year after Enron, many company plans still had the vast majority of assets invested in employer stock. For instance, Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG - News) employees had 94% of plan assets invested in P&G stock. Pfizer (NYSE: PFE - News) came in at more than 85%, while both Anheuser-Busch (NYSE: BUD - News) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO - News) were above 81%. In comparison, Enron's level was just 62% when its stock crashed.

Of course, there are no hard-and-fast rules for how much to put into your employer's shares, but if you limit your contribution to at most 10% of your total retirement funds, you're giving yourself enough exposure to benefit from any appreciation your company might enjoy while protecting your downside should it be your turn for the bear to eat you.

Striking out the side

When a stock is rising, it's easy to get caught up and think you should be putting more into it. It was only a year ago that Bear Stearns shares were trading at $150 a stub -- and just earlier this month that they were near $80.

Here are some alarming statistics from FINRA:

* One-third of employees eligible to invest in company stock through their 401(k) have more than 20% in their company's stock.
* Almost 9% of them have more than 80% invested in their employer.
* For employees in their 60s, almost 20% hold half of their 401(k) savings in company stock.

How is it, though, that so many employees have such large stakes in their companies? For many workers, their 401(k) plan will be their biggest investment vehicle -- and since it's run through the company, investing in shares becomes easy. According to a study by Hewitt Associates, 23% of companies offering matching contributions do so in company stock. A 2006 study by the National Center for Employee Ownership found that 25 million Americans own employer stock through ESOPs, options, stock purchase plans, 401(k) plans, and other plans -- while 10.6 million hold stock options (often in addition to outright shares).

Foolish final thoughts

Protect yourself from becoming one of those employees who risk losing their life savings because they have too much tied up in their company's stock. You already count on your job to provide you with a paycheck to pay living expenses. Don't put your whole financial future in your employer's hands as well.

Pfizer, Coke, and Anheuser-Busch are recommendations of Motley Fool Inside Value. Pfizer and JPMorgan Chase are Income Investor selections.

Fool contributor Rich Duprey does not have a financial position in any of the stocks mentioned in this article. You can see his holdings here. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
Copyrighted, The Motley Fool. All rights reserved.





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Shanghai Index Down More Than 6 Percent


China's Main Stock Index Down More Than 6 Percent; Hang Seng, Kospi Also Lower in Early Trade

HONG KONG (AP) -- Asian stock indexes fell in early trading Thursday as investors took a cue from overnight losses on Wall Street.

China's benchmark Shanghai Composite Index was down 6.5 percent to 3,516.33 amid mounting worries over the likely impact of a U.S. recession on China's own booming economy.

Hong Kong's blue chip Hang Seng index fell 4.4 percent to 20,896.14 after the market opened Thursday.

Elsewhere in Asia, South Korea's Kospi Composite Index fell about 1.6 percent. Japanese markets are closed for the Vernal Equinox holiday.

The Asian markets tracked weakness on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones industrial average fell 2.4 percent to 12,099.66 Wednesday.









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